For Erie County Republican Chairman Nick Langworthy, a lot rides on the upcoming special election in the 26th Congressional District. In his first year, Langworthy has no significant wins to claim for his own as chairman. And don’t tell me about Democrat-turned-Republican Mark Grisanti’s unlikely win over Antoine Thompson; Langworthy had little part in that. In fact, Jack Quinn III’s loss to Tim Kennedy is a far more significant blemish than Grisanti’s win is a credit on Langworthy’s record.

A win by Assemblywoman Jane Corwin would be the first feather in his cap, and it ought to be easy: Republicans heavily outnumber Democrats in the district.

But Jack Davis seems to be drawing votes away from Corwin, according to a Siena poll released last week, and Hochul is holding her own: 31 percent of those polled said they’d vote for Hochul, against 36 percent for Corwin. That’s perilously close to the poll’s 4.5 percent margin of error. Twenty-three percent said they’d vote for Davis, including 24 percent of Republicans polled, and nine percent said they were undecided or didn’t care—including 11 percent of Republicans polled. Only five percent of Democrats polled expressed such indifference.

Neither Corwin not Hochul show significant crossover appeal, according to the Siena poll: 10 percent of Republicans polled chose Hochul, 12 percent of Democrats polled chose Corwin, which, given the pool of respondents, is a wash.

Finally, Corwin’s efforts to undercut Hochul’s positive image doesn’t seem to be working: Corwin is perceived as running the more negative campaign, according to the poll.

—geoff kelly