To Flip Or Not To Flip? That Is THE Question For Many…


One of the hardest things for The Vanguard (AKA Keith Raniere) to accept about his new reality is that at least one of his co-defendants is, according to the AUSA Moira Kim Penza, close to working out a plea deal.

Nancy Salzman

The speculation is that it’s Nancy Salzman who’s ready to play “Queen For A Day” and answer all the questions that federal investigators would like to ask her about Raniere and the illegal enterprise that, along with the help of many others (especially Clare Bronfman and Sara Bronfman-Igtet), he’s operated for almost two decades.

That makes sense for lots of reasons:

– Keith unceremoniously replaced her with Clare as the Queen Bee in his operation;

– Because Keith declared that she has issues with money, Clare put her on an allowance – and basically made her beg for money every month;

– Keith reneged on his promise to impregnate her daughter, Lauren – which likely means that Lauren will never experience the joys of motherhood;

– Keith chose to make Allison Mack his #1 Slave rather than Lauren;

– One of her daughters has already been charged – and there is a strong possibility that the Feds could also charge her other daughter, Michelle, and Michelle’s husband, Ben Meyers;

– Nancy is supposedly dealing with a “life-threatening illness” – and would probably prefer not to die in prison; and

– Nancy has lots of information to trade for a reduced prison sentence.

But as he walks around all day in his cellblock – or lies awake on his bunk at night – Vanguard has got to be wondering about who else might flip on him. And, unfortunately for him, there are a lot of possibilities for him to consider:

Here are a few with our odds:


Lauren Salzman (90% Probability): She’s gone out of her way to avoid eye contact with Vanguard in their last two court appearances. If Nancy is cutting a deal, wouldn’t it make sense for her to include Lauren in it?


Michelle Salzman-Meyers (90% Probability): If Nancy’s going to save one daughter, she can’t very well abandon the other.


Ben Meyers (90% Probability): In addition to whatever help he can get from Nancy, he also has a lot of valuable info about all of Raniere’s computer-related crimes.


Allison Mack (10% Probability): Although some think that being away from Raniere will help clear her head, I think she’s simply too indoctrinated to turn on Keith. And she has this Joan-of-Arc self-image that can only be fulfilled if she “stands by her man” and goes to trial – and prison – with him.


Kathy Russell

Kathy Russell (10% Probability): In addition to not being very bright, Kathy has the extra impediment of having totally abandoned her family and non-NXIVM friends for the last 15+ years. At this point, the only way for her to justify all her poor decisions is to see this thing through and go to prison.


Karen Unterreiner

Karen Unterreiner (80% Probability): The person who many consider to the real brains behind Raniere’s criminal enterprise has been a virtual ghost since Raniere’s arrest (Many believe that she’s already flipped). It’s hard to believe that the Feds would bother arresting a low-level bookkeeper like Kathy Russell and let Karen off the hook.


Karen Abney

Karen Abney (50% Probability): After she replaced Kathy Russell as NXIVM’s de facto Chief Financial Officer, she became aware of a lot of Raniere’s financial crimes. And she’s got $25,000 tied up in Kathy Russell’s bail bond.


Matt McMorris

Matt McMorris (50% Probability): The man who once worked for Barbara Bouchey and who fraudulently claimed to be a licensed CPA handled all the financial paperwork for many of Raniere’s shell companies – and for the Bronfman sisters’ phony charities. He has enough inside info to make himself a deal, provided that he does so before he gets indicted.


Steve Ose

Steve Ose (50% Probability): He’s been involved with Raniere’s criminal activities since the Consumer Buyline days – and could provide a treasure trove of information about all of Raniere’s computer-related crimes. But he’s still hiding out in Texas – and hoping that the Feds have forgotten about him.


Jim Del Negro

James Del Negro (30% Probability): He’s the guy who’s on the paperwork for lots of Raniere’s companies (There are so many that he couldn’t even remember some of them when he was cross-examined by Susan Dones during her bankruptcy case). But a lot of people think that Jim is just too dumb to parlay his knowledge into a decent plea deal.


Sara Bronfman and Baset Igtet with one of their babies.

Sara Bronfman (60% Probability): Sara is a mom now – and, although not especially bright, she’s got her hubby, the would-be dictator of Libya, to counsel her through the flipping process. And she’s probably willing to pay $100 million or so in fines and penalties in order to remain in Europe for the rest of her life.


Clare Bronfman

But Vanguard’s biggest fear of all has got to be that Clare Bronfman finally comes to her senses and realizes how Raniere has played her for a fool for the last 15 years. If that happens – and I think it’s at least a 30% probability right now – it’s game over for The Vanguard.


No recent pictures of Keith Raniere are available since cameras are prohibited in court. This is a recent court sketch of him in court.

About the author


News and art, national and local. Began as alternative weekly in 1990 in Buffalo, NY. Publishing content online since 1996.


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  • Im my in my opinion the probability that Allison flipped made a deal is a lot higher. Because: 1.) She out on bail. 2.) She is exemplary with her bail terms. 3.) Her bail terms have been relaxed. 3.) She avoids eye contact with every NXIVM member in the courtroom….

  • Sara’s baby is adorable! How could any mother or her Auntie Clare forsake her future for a Jew-hating sex maniac sleeze bucket?!

  • IDK, sounds like there was a “show” (and could have been just that – a show) of solidarity between the women at the last hearing in that none eyed Keith.

    Plus, Lauren and Allison were dressed like butch, bobbsie twins.

    Agnofilo’s out to prove the branding was all just a crazy, mixed up sorority scheme hatched by whacky Allie Mack — which was prolly Keith’s premeditated “Ali-bye” all along, if caught.

    Maybe they’re all going with the plan for Ali to “take the fall” insofar as the sex trafficking, forced labor charges go.

    I agree, Nancy is dealing but may be so ill as to loose her memory post-plea deal. …What if?

    I’d say there’s a 99.9345 chance Allison starts hearing voices soon.

    • Hi to Heidi?

      I have a few questions for you! I read your article on your sister and everything and I want to say how sorry I am about her death .
      I was interested in hearing more about Keith. I think he’s extremely sexy and I wanted to know how he is in bed. Tell the truth, we all know you were screwing him too, and sharing him with your sister! So come on, don’t be shy, give us all the juicy details. Was it like a threesome thing? Or did they usually have big orgies…and did you guys film the action?
      People are interested in that kind of shit, Heidi!!

        • It’s just Scott Johnson attacked posters under various names. He can’t even keep track of them all, and sometimes replies as Flowers when he didn’t originally attack the person under that name.
          He also makes posts to support his own opinions, and argues with himself at times to try to prop up the facade.

      • Shame on you, Flowers a.k.a. Scott Johnson. Can’t get a reaction out of other people so you turn on someone else?
        Put down the bottle, and get help.

    • Fall gal Kathy Russell didn’t get the memo on the hearing dress code or googling Keith, either. Fall girls will fall again and again, sigh!

  • If the Feds can flip Nancy and Lauren it will be a one-two punch that will knock out Rainier and his gang.
    Nancy has her inside information on the day to day operations of the cult and its finances.
    Lauren can fill in the details on the DOS slave harem.

    Frankly Allison knows too little about the financial operations and it might too late for Clare to flip.

    The Feds wild focus their fire on the Unholy Trinity of Rainier, Cuella Bronfman and Mack

  • No good person “flips” to save themselves. It is unethical. Nancy is a criminal but Keith will still prevail. He will be acquitted.

    • So Pea Brain,
      What is wrong with telling the truth?
      Who was a criminal before meeting the Vandump aka Keith Raniere?
      Maybe Nancy Salzman was for billing her counseling clients through someone who was approved to bill insurance companies (since Nancy was not approved in any state as a clinical therapist.
      Other than that, no one was involved in criminal activities.
      Raniere needs to take full responsibility for his actions in order to heal his Ethical Breaches against those who believed in him.

      • He has not ethical breaches. He is fully unified and that is the secret behind this all. You are not unified. The judge nor the jury is unified. He is and that judgement cannot be bit imperfect unless he himself ordains it. Be advised : you know now what you speak.

        • I would love to see him try to claim he couldn’t find a jury of his peers on the basis that he is the only unified person on earth if he can even afford to try to appeal his conviction.

    • Pea:
      So branding and enslaving women is hunky dory in your book but talking with the FBI about criminal activity is wrong!
      This case is developing like most conspiracy and RICO cases.

  • I am torn between wanting Tighe to get the transplant he needs, and wanting Ben to have to tell the truth about which one of them planted all the child pornography on his computer as part of any deal.

    I think most of the probabilities look pretty realistic, but I think JDN is likely lower than 30%. He literally has nothing else in his life, even though I think his family would welcome him back if he flipped.

  • These odds will go to zero when one or two of them flip, the Feds don’t want or even need all of them to flip, just one or two. I wouldn’t count on those flipping to get a good deal either, just not as bad of punishment as they would have received.

    • Does not matter what she does. She is going down as hard as Vanguard. Her money financed way too much corruption and evil. She is toast.

    • I actually think it takes a certain amount of guts to pull the plug on yourself sober.

      I don’t think he has the fortitude to do it.

      I think he would just start trying to hypnotise his fellow inmates to see if he can get some protectors that way, and keep filing appeals until either the appeals process or Clare’s $ has run out.

      • It seems like most of the criminals and brainwashed are women. Do men succumb to his charm as well? I wonder how he’s handling prison, where there are no women and his pedophilia may be common knowledge. If he were getting “rammed”, would it bother him?

        He really rings my bullshit detector, plus he’s not attractive, so I don’t see the appeal at all.

  • NXIVM females are all ugly and the males are weak emasculated soy boy dickheads.

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