Guest View: We should consider the Rat as being possible two persons

By Alexandre Trudel

I think Niceguy’s comment on the post about the Rat should be taken seriously:  “I think the Rat spoke the truth of what they knew but pretended to be someone else to deflect away from his or her actual identity. That is why there is poor spelling and the point of view reads like 3rd person. Someone probably confided in Rat and Rat decided to go public”.

Then we could consider the Rat as 2 persons in one: the one who wrote the message to John Tighe and the one who gave all the information to the Rat. The first person (the Rat) was not part of the inner circle (but close) and was probably a Mexican citizen who left the cult after the confession he or she heard and passed to John. The Rat’s informant was someone in the inner circle (aka part of the harem) for a long time and who knew almost everything about Raniere’s criminal activities. She did confess out of anger or disillusion.

So to me, the Rat’s identity is not the most important question: it’s the Rat’s informer that matters the most. Who could it be? Pam Cafritz? Very unlikely. Nancy? I doubt it because she wasn’t there during the Consumer Buy Line era and they were no interests for her to denounce. That left 3 persons: Karen Unterreiner, Kristin Keefe or Barbara Jeske. We come back to Frank’s speculations made here:


Early harem members and purple stripes Barbara Jeske and Pam Cafritz. Both dead before age 60.

Jeske is not part of Frank’s analysis, I don’t know why. In this post, Frank eliminates quickly  Kristin Keefe: “Evidence points to the fact that Keeffe was plotting her escape from Raniere even then and had to be careful about Raniere tracking posts. Plus Keeffe had Raniere’s son in her care which made her vulnerable to Raniere’s vendettas. She had to be super careful and certainly not take foolish chances by posting gratuitous and vengeful posts.”

It’s a good argument, but what about if the Rat’s informant DIDN’T KNOW that her confessions were going to be used on John’s blog? That would explain why the Rat has to hide his informer’s identity and play as he was the one speaking. That would protect Kristin or Karen from Raniere’s anger.

Because we know that Kristin Keefe was a close friend to Gina and was taking her distance (in secret) at the time the message was published, it seems to me that there is some chance that Keefe was the one hiding behind the Rat. Also, we know that Keefe talked a lot after her exit (she contacted Bouchey). Before, she worked closely with (corrupted?) Rodger Kirsopp to help NXVIM to fight his enemies. And strangely it’s Kirsopp himself who helped Kristin to flee out with Gaelen and erased her traces. What about if Keefe was, in fact, the one behind the Rat’s words and that Raniere finally understood that (for sure he did everything he can to found out who was the Rat). That would become a serious reason for Keefe to panic and to ask Kirsopp to help her to exit.

Karen Unterreiner has been with Keith Raniere since he was in his 20’s. She brought him scores of women and helped him secure underage girls too.

Or maybe the Rat is Daniela Fernandez? It sounds crazy, I know she was imprisoned at the time, but perhaps she had access to a computer somehow and revealed the things Keefe, Pam or Unterreiner confided to her?  That would explain the “come back to Mexico” sentence.

Questions to Heidi: Why do you link the Rat with the Chart found in your sister’s car? Why are you sure that Buddist chart wasn’t written by Raniere (or your sister)? Do you think Keefe could be behind it?


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Frank Parlato


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  • Thanks One Night for the shout out. Frank and the crew do a such a great job of analysis and commentary. I usually do not have anything insightful to add.

  • Here’s what I surmise, briefly, and I could be completely wrong…

    Kristin Keeffe is “The Rat.”

    Yes, she deliberately misspelled her own name with an “e” and took other grave measures to disguise her identity.

    Kristin may have been intoxicated, that alone might account for other grammar problems. And/Or she might have poorly pretended to be a non-Native English speaker; i.e. a Mexican citizen headed back home for good as she wants us to swallow.

    But “The Rat” appears not to speak a word of Spanish and does not make grammar errors common to Mexicans speaking English as a second language. There’s no gender pronoun confusion, no misplacement of verbs before nouns. “MexicanEspian” (one of them using that name) is not Mexican much either, IMO, btw.

    Kristin and “Jim Del Negro,” whom The Rat identifies with, may both have a serious, long-term drinking problem. I’ve observed both of them inappropriately intoxicated at various times. “The Rat” might have commiserated and certainly empathized with Jim in their “pawn-like” imprisonment to KAR and NX.

    The Rat describes the suicide victims as “friends of Kristen” and “Ester,” Jim’s wife, Esther Chappione.” The Rat takes pangs to distance herself from knowing their names, when we can be certain those names of the suicide victims were whispered on the lips of all within the purview of the NX top-tier for years.

    What “The Rat” couldn’t disguise was her real guilt over her responsibility in these deaths and the on-going recruitment and molestation of young girls over decades with Gina Hutchinson foremost among the earliest generation of them.

    The Rat feels the “girl at the monestary” who was underage (when Keith molested her) Gina was spared by death from the sufferings of the raped girls (and young boy forced to videotape or participate) who “survived” these molestations but must suffer the rest of their days with these emotional scars. Gina’s death was merciful in The Rat’s view.

    Kristin is the mother of Gaelen. I have a son myself. Even as a “feminist” of sorts, I became much more sensitive to boys rearing a son and I agree with “The Rat” that “no young boy should have to go through” what Adrian was put through videotaping and or participating in sex acts with his sisters.

    The Rat’s post screams mother instincts with regards to “Pam’s” poor stewardship of the Fernandez girls, whom their parents entrusted in the care of NX’s “Rainbow Culture Garden” and the late Pam Caffritz. Their are other components of universal maternal instinct upset in the Rat’s confession.

    The process of elimination time-wise, that Frank previously analyzed, does rule out many suspects who couldn’t have known Gina was underage, about the girls playing video games Vanguard raped in the warehouse, about Pam’s role in the rape of Rhianon AND everything, everyone else described up to the date the Rat post appeared. The timeline rules out many if not all of the Mexicans as “The Rat.”

    Remember this was all prior to the Albany Times Union story appearing. Even I was surprised Rhiannon’s “pimp” was Pam and not Kristin.

    That’s all I have time for this post and not sure if Frank will even post this because on one last note for now; I believe Frank is unconsciously protecting Kristin and Gaelen and Kristin has had a heavy hand in deceiving Frank in many ways from the moment they met when Frank went to work for NX.

    Karen U. is not “The Rat” but someone obviously encouraged Frank to conclude she is.

    If Frank runs this, I’ll share my thoughts on Gina’s deathshrine chart at the scene of her “suicide.”

    Thank you.

    • Thanks Heidi, your analysis seems very rational to me (and you know much more than all of us). So to you it may be possible that the rat was in fact only one person, but one who tries to hide her identity behind a pseudo “mexican visage”. Maybe Kristin was drunk and felt guily the day she acted as the Rat? That sounds credible because that was a very dangerous and foolish thing think shey played. And I think that it did’t take long before Raniere guessed who the Rat was. All that would explain why Keeffe had to leave quickly, and her feeling of guilt would explain why she contacted Bouchey and confessed so much thingst o her.

      • No, thank YOU, Alex. Last thing I want is to foreclose on further analysis and I welcome new ideas and information. You came so close to my long-held opinion on this that I thought I’d throw it out there and see what you all make of it.

        I do have a few other details to substantiate the theory that Kristin was at least “behind” The Rat, as you say. Yours was a very good analysis for someone without the information I know and have accumulated with the help of people like John, Joe, Toni, Frank, Catherine and other journalists, bloggers and folks like yourself who are more analytical than I ever wanted to be! Necessity is a MOTHER, and that’s mostly what I am out of son’s necessity. …Really hurts my brain to have to think this much! Lol.

    • Heidi – Thank you so much for all of the information. Totally agree with everything you are concluding – including Frank deflecting us towards Karen U. I’d put the odds at 85 – 90% that The Rat is Kristin.

    • Yes, Heidi this seems v. plausible. I don’t want to make an uninformed guess on who it is, but I can say with certainty this Rat is not a second language speaker, the writer is as fluent in the english language as one would need to be to meet the definition..

      the first sentence, quite apart from being almost as ubiquitous a device in stories as “once upon a time’,

      ‘By the time they [Nxivm leaders] read this, I will have gone back to Mexico with Edgar ‘[Boone?]. 

      contains third conditional grammar necessary to express the most complicated series of events which are to have already taken place, in the future…(Completed Action Before Something in the Future)

      We have,

      [prepositional clause]+ [ [Future Perfect] +[adv. clause]

      This is the very model of high order thought expressed precisely in high-order grammar. This person is very literate, if not literary, and or educated to proficiency level if a second language speaker,( in which case the spelling errors seem contrived. ) or, at least a strong high school education if a native speaker, in which case the spelling errors seem deliberate because they break specific rules, as against say, the letter order errors of dyslexia, or the word order errors of second language speakers. there are other obvious indicators like the use of passive verbs to conceal agency:

      ‘At least those who died, had their lives ended.’

      that indicate to me the writer is a native speaker, as nice guy said, obfuscating. Which, is regrettably understandable, given the gravity of the message conveyed in relation to the person you think might have sent it.

  • I would add this about Kirsopp. For him to rescue Kristin was win-win: by helping her to escape the cult, he would look like someone not corrupted by NXVIM’s interests (maybe at the beggining he really belived their crazy allegations of computer trepassing? That’s possible… if he didn’t create false evidences against John Tigue of course, that would made him officially corrupted). He could then be liberated from NXIVM’s mess and looked like the good cop. Again, it’s all speculations, but maybe one day Kirsopp understood that helping NXIVM was becoming dangerous for his reputation, so he crossed the floor and saved Kistin et her son from Raniere’s possible vendetta.

    • I hope Kristen is working on a book. When this is finally over and she feels safe to release it, the thing would be a best seller. And can be the basis for one or more of the movies. Get to work, KK. Keith can finally make you rich!

    • Yes, Alex. And that way, Kirsopp would know where to find Kristin Keeffe and Vanguard’s son in the event someone were willing to pay top dollar for information leading to their whereabouts. IMO.

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