Nike stock dropped more than 4 percent Monday to below $40, its lowest level since September 2024 and down approximately 78 percent from its November 2021 all-time high of $179.
The relentless slide has no single catalyst on Monday; it is the accumulated weight of everything that has gone wrong since 2021 finally reaching a fresh low.
The problems are structural and documented. Revenue has been flat for two consecutive fiscal years, fiscal 2026 revenue of $46 billion was unchanged from the prior year. Greater China, once Nike's growth engine, fell 11 percent to $5.85 billion as consumers shift to domestic brands.
Converse collapsed 35 percent. Net income fell 3 percent. Gross margins are under pressure from tariffs and clearance pricing to clear outdated inventory.
The CFO announced his departure in June. CEO Elliott Hill, who took over in late 2024, has been running a turnaround called Win Now and pointing to wholesale growth in North America as evidence it is working. Wall Street is not yet convinced.
Nike trades at roughly 18 times forward earnings at current prices. The average analyst price target is approximately $50, implying meaningful upside if the turnaround materializes. Nine analysts rate it a buy, 14 a hold and two a sell. The dividend has been raised for 24 consecutive years and remains intact.
The brand is not in question. The business model, the margins and the timeline for recovery are.