SpaceX Stock Falls Below Its IPO Price After Wall Street Releases Wildly Bullish Targets

SpaceX went public in June in the largest IPO in US history, raising $75 billion at $135 per share, watching the stock peak near $211 within three days of trading, and then watching it fall back through the IPO price and toward $123 as of this week.

The stock has shed nearly 60 percent of its post-IPO peak value in about six weeks.

The timing of the decline is jarring because it came almost immediately after 18 of the banks that underwrote the IPO released their formal analyst price targets, a process that always happens 25 days after a new stock starts trading.

The targets ranged from Stifel's relatively modest $190 to Raymond James's extraordinary $800, with the median from all 18 banks landing at exactly $225. Morgan Stanley called SpaceX "AI's final frontier."

Bank of America credited it for "paving the superhighway to the stars." Raymond James compared the company's potential to the dawn of electrification, railroads and the internet.

Then the stock kept falling.

The reason the targets are so uniform, and so disconnected from the company's actual finances, is that SpaceX is nearly impossible to value on its fundamentals. The company lost $4.9 billion on revenues of less than $19 billion in 2025.

Even at $160 per share before the targets were released, it was trading at 105 times its annual revenue. University of Florida IPO expert Jay Ritter said what most analysts won't: "The analysts at one bank appear to be highly influenced by the prices the other analysts are predicting. No one knows where it's going, so the solution is just to add a big percentage number to show you're bullish."

At the median analyst target of $225, SpaceX would be valued at $3 trillion, twice Meta's current market cap.